'Hamilton facing a far tougher challenge to catch Verstappen than he realises'

A one-two at the 2022 Sao Paulo Grand Prix lulled Mercedes into afalse sense of security with its unique zero sidepod design, whichit carried over to 2023's W14. Maybe, just maybe there was somegoodness locked within the extreme concept that could make all thedifference, but as soon as Lewis Hamilton drove it in Februaryduring a Silverstone shakedown, he knew the season was doomed. "Iremember it feeling exactly the same, and that definitely was not agreat feeling. I really had high hopes," the Briton explained. "InFebruary, when we do a download of where the car is going, I was alittle more apprehensive, because the previous year it was like:'The car is amazing, it's unique, no-one's going to have anythinglike it.' And then we get to the first test "So, I was a little bitmore cautious when I was listening, and I was like: 'We will see,'and then the car had all these problems. I just knew it was goingto be a long year." A long year it was with just six podiums to hisname, but this was a wasted year by Mercedes, one in which itseemed further away from Red Bull than ever and with drastic changegoing on behind the scenes, makes a simple bouncing back in 2024virtually impossible. The end of the season There was genuineoptimism after a floor upgrade at the United States Grand Prix thatMercedes had taken a tangible step forward after abandoning thezero sidepods in Monaco. Hamilton took second on the road in bothSprint and Grand Prix - before his Sunday result was expunged forexceeding the plank wear, but he followed up with a strong drive tosecond next time out in Mexico City. But from there, Mercedes'season went into free-fall. Returning to Sao Paulo brought cautionbut the team was thumped as the W14 could not get to grips withInterlagos. Slow-straight line speed killed chances of fighting fora podium, as Hamilton came home a lowly eighth, with George Russellretiring. In Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi, Hamilton was dumped in Q2,and recovered to seventh and ninth, respectively as Mercedesstumbled across the finish line to nab second in the Constructors'from Ferrari. Hamilton cut a resigned figure at Yas Marina, with astrong sense of him being there because he was contractuallyobliged to be instead of wanting to race. After all, a 103-timeGrand Prix winner and seven-time champion is not going to getrevved up fighting for scraps and the odd podium. Hamilton is awinner. Mercedes problems It must also be said that this is not theMercedes team of the glory years. Put aside the car performance,this is not a team operating at the same level as it was in termsof trackside operations and back in the factory. Firstly, therewere a handful of instances in 2023 where Hamilton and Russell cameacross one another on track, including in qualifying in Spain wherethe latter knocked off some of the former's front-wing. This wasput down to a miscommunication by the team, which over the courseof a season, can be expected. No team will ever be faultlessoperationally at every race. But then it happened again in Belgiumand the race in Japan, although contact was avoided on theseoccasions. After the Nico Rosberg heat had been removed from theequation, Mercedes settled down and aside from Valtteri Bottasbeing told to cede position every so often, Mercedes was sharp withits trackside operations. Sure there was the odd strategy blunder,but again, that's to be expected and the idea is to keep that to aminimum of one per season. Mercedes was making mistakes it simplynever did in its heyday - with key senior figures also leaving. TheRed Bull example Take Red Bull as an example. Adrian Newey is ChiefTechnical Officer, Pierre Wache is Technical Director, PaulMonaghan is Chief Engineer, and Jonathan Wheatley is SportingDirector. Others such as Chief Designer Rob Marshall (McLaren) andHead of Aerodynamics Dan Fallows (Aston Martin) have been nabbedaway, but the head of the technical structure has remained firmlyin place. As for Mercedes, since 2020, it has changed TechnicalDirector twice, CTO twice, lost its power unit guru, strategydirector and engineering director. James Allison relinquished theTD role to be replaced by Mike Elliott, and made CTO, but in spring2022, the two swapped roles with Allison taking on the more'day-to-day' running of the technical team as TD. Elliott then lefthis CTO role in October, with Andy Cowell, James Vowles and AldoCosta also among those to depart. That level of upheavel is notconductive to producing world championship-winning cars. For years,the stability of Mercedes' technical team was played up as astrength, but most of the pieces have departed. That will take timeto bed in, time unfortunately not possible due to just how much RedBull has been crushing the field. It pressures Mercedes to findthat magic, silver bullet and be back fighting for wins andchampionships, but this is a team in transition. The Brackley squadis currently in its 2010-2013 phase of building up. Should the 2024W15 also be a dud, so will the 2025 W16 due to the carryoverexpected as attention turns to the looming 2026 rules reset.Mercedes is effectively two years behind Red Bull in itsunderstanding of its car concept - and clawing that back will nothappen overnight. Who will be Red Bull's closest challengers in2024? Let us know by voting in the poll and in the comments below!